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AfD Leads in Federal Preference for the First Time
In a significant political shift, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken the Union parties (CDU/CSU) in the latest ARD DeutschlandTrend poll. If the federal elections were held on the coming Sunday, the AfD would secure 27 percent of the vote, a two-point increase from the previous month, positioning it ahead of the Union, which dropped to 24 percent. Other parties’ standings include the Greens at 15 percent, SPD at 12 percent, and The Left at 10 percent. This marks the first time in ARD DeutschlandTrend’s history that the AfD enjoys the highest voter support nationally [Source 1][Source 2][Source 3].
Public Confidence in Government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz Declines
The growing support for the AfD coincides with a notable decrease in public satisfaction with the current federal government and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Only 16 percent of respondents are satisfied with Merz’s performance, a sharp decline from 39 percent at the start of his term in June 2025. A majority, 69 percent, believe that Merz is not up to the challenges of his office. Similarly, trust in the coalition government’s ability to improve the German economy has plummeted to 24 percent — a 31-point drop from June 2025. Confidence in managing irregular migration is slightly higher but still limited, with just 34 percent expressing trust in the government’s handling of migration policy [Source 1][Source 3].
Implications for Expats and International Residents in Germany
This political development may influence Germany’s policy direction in areas crucial to expats, such as migration regulations, economic reforms, and social integration policies. A rise in support for the AfD, known for its strict stance on immigration, could signal future shifts in migration controls and residency requirements. Expats and foreign workers should be aware of potential changes affecting visa policies, work permits, and social services eligibility. Monitoring forthcoming policy announcements and maintaining compliance with current regulations will be essential to avoid legal complications. Additionally, international students and workers should stay informed through official channels ahead of any adjustments that might impact their stay or employment rights in Germany [Source 1].
For more detailed information and continuous updates, readers can access the full ARD DeutschlandTrend report here: tagesschau.de [Source 1].
